[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 13 issued 2351 UT on 27 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 28 10:51:01 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from 510 km/s to 410 km/s
due to the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component of
IMF showed variations between +/-4 nT almost the whole day
today. The coronal hole effect is showing signs of weakening.
The coronal hole effect is expected to further decline over
the next 24 hours. Very low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 27/2125UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 4 21112211
Norfolk Island 5 22111221
Gnangara 4 21112211
Camden 4 21111211
Canberra 3 21101211
Hobart 5 22211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 23121210
Casey 16 34532221
Mawson 15 43223324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 3124 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the weakening of the effect of the high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity declined to Quiet to Unsettled levels today. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions on 28 January and mostly Quiet on
29 and 30 January, may be expected as the effect of the
coronal hole is expected to gradually further diminish
during this period. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 27/2125UT, which can be a
precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed today on most locations. Periods of strong
sporadic E were also observed on low and some mid latitude
locations. HF conditions may be expected to improve over
the next 24 hours. Minor MUF depression may be observed on
mid and high latitudes on 28 January. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on 29 and 30 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed today on most locations. Periods of strong
sporadic E were also observed in northern Australian regions.
HF conditions may be expected to improve over the next
24 hours. Minor MUF depression may be observed on mid and
high latitudes on 28 January. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on 29 and 30 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 254000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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