[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 13 issued 2323 UT on 26 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 27 10:23:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. As anticipated,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 490 km/s
to 510 km/s due to the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz
component of IMF showed variations between +/-10 nT almost
the whole day today. The coronal hole effect is expected to
continue to keep solar wind stream strengthened for the next
2 days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next 3 days. IPS Mag data recorded a weak sudden impulse
(20nT) at 0540UT on 26 01 13 0540UT. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 26/2000UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 43333334
Cocos Island 12 32233323
Darwin 15 43332333
Townsville 17 43332334
Learmonth 23 33443435
Alice Springs 15 33333333
Norfolk Island 14 33332234
Gnangara 20 43333335
Camden 18 43332434
Canberra 15 33332334
Hobart 22 44433434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 30 33455543
Casey 37 56544344
Mawson 45 54544466
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 0111 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole and a possible effect of a CME, Unsettled
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 26 Jan, a weak (20nT) impulse
was observed at 0540UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay
at Unsettled to Active levels on 27 January, Quiet to Unsettled
on 28 January and mostly Quiet on 29 January as the effect of
the coronal hole is expected to gradually diminish during this
period. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 26/2000UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated, HF conditions were mostly normal
today with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
on mid and high latitude locations . Minor to moderate MUF
depressions on 27 January and minor to mild depressions on
28 January may be observed on mid and high latitudes due to
an expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 29 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
28 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As anticipated, HF conditions were mostly normal
today with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
in northern Australian regions and moderate MUF depressions
in Southern parts of this region . Minor to moderate MUF
depressions on 27 January and minor to mild depressions on
28 January may be observed on mid and high latitudes due to
an expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 29 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 34900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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