[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 13 issued 2326 UT on 25 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 26 10:26:08 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A few B-class
flares were observed. As anticipated, the solar wind speed
showed a gradual increase from 270 km/s to 400 km/s due to
the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF stayed
close to the normal value (mostly between +/-5 nT) until around
1800UT and then showed variations between +/-10 nT. The CME
observed on 23 January may have a weak geoeffective component.
The CME may arrive late on 26 or early on 27 January. Very
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 12221322
Cocos Island 3 11110220
Darwin 7 1211133-
Townsville 8 12221323
Learmonth 9 22221333
Alice Springs 6 12121322
Norfolk Island 5 11211222
Gnangara 5 11121222
Camden 6 01121323
Canberra 4 01210213
Hobart 5 1222122-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 0111111-
Casey 12 34422212
Mawson 9 23221214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 15 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Rise in the activity level up to unsettled levels is expected
from 26 to 28 January due to the expected effect of a coronal
hole and a possible effect of a CME that was observed on
23 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes.
Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may be
observed from 26 to 28 January due to an expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
27 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
28 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian
regions. Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may
be observed from 26 to 28 January due to an expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 272 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 15600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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