[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 13 issued 2346 UT on 24 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 25 10:46:42 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest
flare was a B6.6 from region 1662(N27E63). Solar wind speed
stayed between 260 and 280 km/s while the Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-4 nT). The
CME observed on 23 January may have a weak geoeffective component.
The CME may arrive late on 26 or early on 27 January. The
previously anticipated effect of a high speed solar wind stream
has not started yet, but it may give some strength to the solar
wind stream from 25 January. Very low to low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 10000012
Townsville 4 11111122
Learmonth 4 31110112
Alice Springs 2 10100102
Norfolk Island 2 11000012
Gnangara 4 21111112
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33310011
Mawson 3 32100001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Rise in the activity level up to unsettled levels is expected
from 25 to 27 January due to the expected effect of a coronal
hole and a possible effect of a CME that was observed on
23 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes.
Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may be
observed from 25 to 27 January due to an expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
27 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian
regions. Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may
be observed from 25 to 27 January due to an expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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