[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 29 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 30 10:29:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day
to ~350km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between -3 to +2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 22122112
Alice Springs 3 21111102
Norfolk Island 2 11011012
Gnangara 4 21122111
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 13 34432211
Mawson 12 43122233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 5 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to
active periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the
last 24 hours, with daytime depressions in the Niue Island region.
Periods of sporadic E were observed at low to mid latitudes.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 63300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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