[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 13 issued 2340 UT on 21 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 22 10:40:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest
flare was a B4.7 from region 1658(S12W46). Region 1660(N12W15)
showed growth over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 390 to 350 km/s while the Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-2 nT). Low
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 2 10111111
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 5 21221122
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 2 11100112
Norfolk Island 2 21110011
Gnangara 5 22111212
Camden 3 21110112
Canberra 1 10100002
Hobart 3 11111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01101001
Casey 8 23321222
Mawson 15 53221224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3232 2100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 5 Quiet
24 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today.
Nearly similar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in Northern
Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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