[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 13 issued 2344 UT on 22 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 23 10:44:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest
flare was a B7.7 from region 1660. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 340 to 300 km/s while the Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-2 nT).
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk may give some
strength to the solar wind stream from 24 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 0 00000001
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 4 12121112
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Gnangara 2 11111001
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 12001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23211000
Mawson 4 22001013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 5 Quiet
24 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar activity may be expected on 23 January and
first half of 24 January. Rise in the activity level up to
unsettled levels is possible late on 24 January and continue
to stay at that level on 25 January due to an expected effect
of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on some low latitude
stations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on
mid and high latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 January
due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some periods
of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days
with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on mid and high
latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 January due to an
expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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