[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 21 10:30:04 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: One, low level, C flare from region 1654 (N07W76). Region
1660 (N13W02) has grown while region 1658 (S13W29) is stable.
No CMEs to report. ACE data show the solar wind speed declining
from 460 to 400 km/s. The north-south IMF component was mostly
southward to -8 nT until ~13 UT, then ranged between +/-4 nT.
The solar wind may become slightly disturbed late on 23 Jan due
to the effects of a small, southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22423111
Cocos Island 5 22322100
Darwin 7 22323101
Townsville 11 23433211
Learmonth 15 33533221
Alice Springs 8 22423011
Norfolk Island 6 22322101
Gnangara 9 32333111
Camden 9 23423001
Canberra 7 22423000
Hobart 10 33423101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 22345200
Casey 14 34433212
Mawson 19 45433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 3100 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 6 Quiet
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 8 Mostly quiet. Possible mild activity in the latter
half of the period.
COMMENT: Mild activity late on 23 Jan due to the effects of a
small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30% 16-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 15-25% 02-04 and
16-17 UT. Enhanced by 15-30% 08-13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 25-50%
05-16 UT at Darwin. Mostly near predicted monthly
values at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-25% at
some stations during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Occasional weak ionosphere. Near predicted monthly values
to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E observed on occasions at mid and low
latitudes during daytime.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 24700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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