[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 20 10:30:07 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Two, low level, C flares from regions 1654 (N08W73)
and 1660 (N11E12). Region 1654 has further decayed. A CME directed
northwards was first observed in STEREO images at 1308 UT and
is unlikely to be geo-effective. Activity was also observed in
the south-east quadrant of SDO images. Available images cannot
confirm any associated CME. ACE data show the solar wind speed
ranged from 370-460 km/s while the north-south IMF component
ranged between +6/-6 nT. A weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 1645 UT, probably signalling the arrival of the CME events.
Solar wind parameters are expected to be moderately disturbed
on 20 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32112323
Cocos Island 6 21112322
Darwin 9 32112323
Townsville 10 32222323
Learmonth 11 32223323
Alice Springs 8 32102323
Norfolk Island 7 32112222
Gnangara 9 42112223
Camden 7 32112222
Canberra 6 32102212
Hobart 7 31212312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 21101211
Casey 15 44342222
Mawson 19 43112326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2311 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 16 Unsettled to active. Minor storm levels possible.
21 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled. Possible isolated active
periods.
22 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and
is current for 19-20 Jan. A weak (11nT) impulse was observed
at 1733 UT in the IPS magnetometer data probably due to the arrival
of the 15/16 Jan CME events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15%
09-12 and 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 25-40% 00-13 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Enhanced 15-35% 12-20 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
enhancements to 25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
21 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values.
22 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at high latitudes on 20
Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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