[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2013

Sat Jan 19 10:30:10 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 115/66

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Five C flares, the largest a C5.8 at 1707 UT from declining 
region 1654 (N07W59). Region 1652 (N18W91) also contributed to 
the flare count. No CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
and STEREO images. ACE data show the solar wind speed increased 
from 360 to 470 km/s and is currently ~440 km/s. The north-south 
IMF component was southward to -10 nT until ~03 UT, then northward 
to 17 nT until ~1745 UT after which it ranged between +/-8 nT. 
There was a step in the data around 11 UT. The solar wind is 
forecast to become further disturbed later 19 Jan and into 20 
Jan due to 15 and 16 Jan CMEs. The disturbance should subside 
21 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to unsettled.
Active to minor storm period 12-15 UT.

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22335322
      Cocos Island        12   2232432-
      Darwin              17   22335333
      Townsville          16   22335332
      Learmonth           18   23335333
      Alice Springs       14   21335322
      Norfolk Island      13   22325222
      Gnangara            10   32224222
      Camden              15   12335332
      Canberra            10   12334212
      Hobart              12   22334232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     6   23112211
      Casey               16   34434222
      Mawson              22   45334314

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   2311 3523     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm levels 
                possible in the latter half of the period.
20 Jan    16    Unsettled to active. Minor storm levels possible.
21 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled. Possible isolated active 
                periods.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and 
is current for 19-20 Jan. A weak (10nT) impulse was observed 
at 0831 UT. The active/minor storm period observed 12-15 UT was 
probably related to the step in solar wind at ~11 UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jan    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20%
      02-09 UT. Depressed to 15-25% 20-23 UT. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30%
      20-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-25%
      18-20 UT at Darwin. Spread F observed at Townsville
      11-19 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced to 30% 00-07 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values to 15% depressed 08-18 UT. Enhanced to 30%
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere with near predicted monthly values
      to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan   115    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
20 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
21 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:    53200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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