[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 05 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 6 10:29:42 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0931UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a short duration
M1 flare observed from around the eastern limb at 0930UT. Numerous
sunspot regions are present on the visible Sun. Further C and
possibly M class flare activity can be expected over the next
few days. The solar wind conditions are ambient. A weak coronal
hole high speed stream may elevate wind speeds on Jan 7th and
8th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 22000000
Townsville 4 12221111
Learmonth 3 22110110
Norfolk Island 1 11010001
Culgoora 1 10010001
Gnangara 3 21111111
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 21110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 10 34321121
Mawson 4 22111111
Davis 6 23211121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 5 Quiet
07 Jan 12 Unsettled with a possible isolated Active period.
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. A co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind stream may
cause an isolated Active period on arrival sometime on the 7th,
followed by Quiet to Unsettled periods in the day or two following.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by 15-20% over
the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the
next 3 days. Some disturbance may be experience on the 7th and
8th due to mild geomagnetic activity. Large changes in the MUF
compared to recent conditions are not expected, but are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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