[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 04 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:29:51 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C1 flares.
A CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO-A satellite coronagraphs,
first seen around 10UT. It appears to be directed to the western
limb and is unlikely to be geo-effective. Solar wind conditions
remain ambient. Many small sunspot regions are currently on the
visible Sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 2 12111001
Norfolk Island 2 21000021
Culgoora 2 20100021
Gnangara 3 2111110-
Camden 3 21110022
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 3 12110021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 11 44331110
Mawson 6 3311200-
Davis 8 33222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 5 Quiet
06 Jan 5 Quiet
07 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the remainder of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by 15-20% over
the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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