[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 4 10:30:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours with
a single C1 flare around 2140UT. Solar wind conditions remain
ambient. There are numerous small active regions on the Sun however
none of these have significant flare potential at present.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 22111101
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Culgoora 1 11010001
Gnangara 3 21111111
Camden 3 12111101
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 11101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 34311001
Mawson 5 33102101
Davis 9 33223211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 5 Quiet
05 Jan 5 Quiet
06 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to mildly enhanced over the
previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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