[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 13 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 7 10:31:55 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares,
mostly from region 1653(N09E65), the greatest being a C3. Solar
wind conditions have been mostly ambient with a small increase
in solar wind speed from around 300 to 350Km/s after 14UT with
an accompanying small increase in the IMF Bz fluctuation amplitude
from around +/-3 nT to 5nT. A CME was observed on the western
limb of the Sun in LASCO imagery from around 06UT. STEREO A and
B imagery indicate this is a backside event and not geoeffective.
Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels with some
chance of isolated M class flares over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11122222
Cocos Island 4 11112121
Darwin 4 11012222
Townsville 6 22122222
Learmonth 8 22123232
Norfolk Island 4 11012122
Culgoora 4 11012222
Gnangara 7 21122232
Camden 6 12122222
Canberra 2 01011111
Hobart 6 12122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00010011
Casey 13 34322233
Mawson 7 22121232
Davis 12 22222252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 12 Quiet before possible isolated Active period
then Unsettled.
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. There is the chance of
an isolated Active period followed by Unsettled conditions on
day 1 (7th of Jan UT) due to the possible arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Conditions are expected to return to Quiet over days
2 and 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by around 15%
over the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over
the next 3 days. Some disturbance may be experience on the 7th
and 8th due to mild geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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