[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 13 issued 2333 UT on 19 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 20 10:33:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: A C2.1 level X-ray flare was observed at 1051UT. Probable
region of origin was AR 1678 (N10W40), which has shown rapid
growth over the past two days. No CME was reported in association
with this event. Learmonth Solar Observatory reported a disappearing
solar filament (N02W15) at 0147UT. Incomplete LASCO and STEREO
imagery shows a CME, probably associated with this event, directed
mostly north of the ecliptic. The CME appears to have a minor
Earth-directed component. Solar wind speed remained steady at
350-400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT,
mostly over short timescales. AR1678 maintains potential for
C- to M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11212221
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 7 22223221
Alice Springs 5 11212222
Norfolk Island 5 -1122222
Gingin 6 21222221
Camden 4 11212211
Canberra 3 02112110
Hobart 5 11213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 01134410
Casey 15 34433222
Mawson 15 22223335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 7 Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods.
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Isolated Unsettled to Active intervals were observed
at high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions days one and
two of the forecast period with the chance of Unsettled to Active
periods due to a weak coronal hole wind stream. Chance of Unsettled
to Active periods on day three due to persisting coronal hole
wind stream and possible mild CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day
with mild depressions 03-05UT.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mild depressions local day otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin depressed 15% 03-06UT, enhanced 30% 15-16UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with extended periods of weak ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Widespread moderate depressions S Aus/NZ after local
dawn Feb 20. Further disturbance/depressions possible next three
days, mainly S Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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