[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 13 issued 2326 UT on 18 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 19 10:26:44 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity was observed over
the UT day 18 Feb. There are 6 active regions on the disc, although
each less than 100 millionths of disc, so only AR1675 (N13E04)
holds much flare potential. A large filament in the SW quadrant
may have CME potential. A narrow trans-equatorial coronal hole
extends across central solar meridian and may produce minor solar
wind disturbances days two and three. Solar wind speed was steady
at around 350km/s. The Bz component of the IMF had an extended
southwards period 17-20UT of around -6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21011112
Darwin 2 10001012
Townsville 5 2212211-
Learmonth 4 2211211-
Alice Springs 2 2001110-
Norfolk Island 3 -1111112
Gingin 2 1101210-
Camden 2 20001112
Canberra 1 10001002
Hobart 2 10002112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 0000100-
Casey 10 3432210-
Mawson 4 2211210-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1211 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 6 Quiet
20 Feb 7 Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods.
21 Feb 7 Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Solar wind parameters remained mostly nominal with a brief moderately
negative Bz excursion 17-20UT. A narrow trans-equatorial coronal
hole may enhance solar wind speed days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions observed at all latitudes
Feb 18.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Briefly enhanced to 30% 05-07UT.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Recovering after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread MUF depressions observed over the UT day
Feb 18. MUF's recovering after local dawn Feb 19, with further
disturbance/depressions possible next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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