[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 13 issued 2336 UT on 17 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 18 10:36:04 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1550UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: AR1675 in the NW quadrant is growing and provided most
of the x-ray flare activity for the UT day including an M1.9
at 1545UT. There are 6 active regions on the disc, although each
less than 100 millionths of disc, so only AR1675 holds much flare
potential. A large filament in the SW quadrant ay have CME potential.
Solar wind speed was very steady in the 350-400km/s range. The
Bz component of the IMF had an extended southwards period 09-18UT
around -7nT, strong enough for sustained geomagnetic merging.
Expect normal solar wind conditions next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 12223332
Darwin 7 21223222
Townsville 13 12234333
Learmonth 11 22224332
Alice Springs 9 21223332
Norfolk Island 8 22223222
Gingin 10 22223242
Camden 9 12223332
Canberra 6 01223221
Hobart 12 12334331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 01146531
Casey 15 34432331
Mawson 19 34322452
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 0001 2542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 6 Quiet
19 Feb 6 Quiet
20 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The extended 09-18UT Bz southwards caused Unsettled
to Active periods at mid to low latitudes and Active to Storm
levels at high latitudes. Australian region storm index Dst registered
-35nT at 17UT and continues below -20nT at 23UT so the 18th will
commence disturbed. As solar wind speed is light-moderate at
~~370km/s geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet
over the 18th. A patchy coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere
may enhance wind speed by the 20th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day except for
depressions during local night towards equatorial regions and
before dawn in southern regions, both probably caused by geomagnetic
activity from and extended southwards interplanetery magnetic
field (IMF Bz) period. There are 6 relatively small active regions
on the disc, providing moderate ionising EUV flux into the ionosphere.
Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions for next three days
in the absence of other extended IMF Bz periods. AR1675 issued
an M1.9 flare during the local night and probably still has the
capacity for more M class flares and so short-wave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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