[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 13 issued 2327 UT on 20 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 21 10:27:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Two impulsive C-class flares were observed at 1111UT
(C8.2) and 1455UT (C3.0). Both originated in AR 1678 (N10W58)
which has shown continued growth in area and extent. No CME was
reported following either event. A longer duration C1.7 level
flare was observed in AR 1678 at 2158UT. A large southern hemisphere
filament erupted from the solar surface over several hours spanning
the UT day change 19-20 Feb. Solar wind speed increased slightly
from 350 to 400 km/s following an IMF phi component phase change.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day with one
sustained moderate negative period (-5nT) from 08-12UT. AR1678
maintains potential for C- to M-class flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 12232312
Darwin 6 12122312
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 8 22232312
Alice Springs 7 22222312
Norfolk Island 6 12132212
Gingin 8 22232312
Camden 9 12233312
Canberra 4 11122201
Hobart 8 12233311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 12144301
Casey 19 3544221-
Mawson 18 43233253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0121 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 7 Quiet
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with briefly Unsettled periods during the mid part
of the UT day. Unsettled to Active intervals were observed at
high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions days one and two
of the forecast period with the chance of Unsettled to Active
periods due to a weak coronal hole wind stream. Chance of Unsettled
to Active periods on day three due to persisting coronal hole
wind stream and possible mild CME effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed 15% 00-04, 09-13UT. Enhanced to 15% 05-08UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin, Learmonth moderately depressed, otherwise
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with extended periods of weak ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Widespread moderate depressions S Aus/NZ continuing
after local dawn Feb 20. Conditions after local dawn Feb 21 generally
improved. Further disturbance/depressions possible next three
days, mainly S Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list