[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 13 issued 2349 UT on 04 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 5 10:49:01 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Two low level C flares from an unnumbered region over
the period. The numbered regions on the disk are largely stable
with alpha or beta magnetic configurations. Background X-ray
flux steadily decreased over the day. No CMEs to report. The
solar wind speed decreased over the period to be near 350km/s
at time of reporting. The north-south IMF component ranged between
+/-4 nT for the UT day. A coronal hole at relatively high solar
latitudes may slightly elevate solar wind speeds late on 4 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21211212
Cocos Island 4 12120211
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 6 22212222
Alice Springs 5 21111222
Norfolk Island 5 21211212
Camden 4 21211211
Canberra 3 11101212
Hobart 4 21202211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 10101111
Casey 14 34422322
Mawson 10 22222431
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 2 2100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 8 Mostly Quiet. Possible Unsettled conditions in
the latter half of the period.
06 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed 04-Feb. Possible
mild activity in the latter half of the period due to the effects
of a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% observed at SAus/NZ region on 04
Feb. Expect MUFs on 05 Feb to average near predicted monthly
values as new region just rotated onto the disc adds in new EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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