[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 4 10:30:28 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
three C-class flares from region 1667 (N23E53), the largest being
a C8 at 03/0610 UT. This region shows signs of growth. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed varied around ~450 km/s during the UT day
and has now declined to ~400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
mostly between +/-5 nT. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 03/1220UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over the next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Cocos Island 3 10122101
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 5 11122212
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 2 10121101
Hobart 4 11122201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00001101
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 12 43123223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2323 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
Australian region during the last 24 hours, with some unsettled
to active periods in the Antarctic region. The 31-Jan CME and
a northern hemisphere coronal hole could cause some unsettled
periods over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted values to enhanced in equatorial and northern Australian
regions, with depressions in southern Australia and the Antarctic.
A possible increase in geomagnetic activity could result in mild
MUF depressions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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