[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 13 issued 2333 UT on 02 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 3 10:33:55 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 1665 (N12E23) and a C2 flare from region
1667 (N21E61). Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed rose from ~400 km/s
to ~500 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly between
between +/-8 nT until 12UT and since then between +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 23332222
Cocos Island 5 22221121
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 13 33333232
Alice Springs 10 23332222
Norfolk Island 9 23332121
Gnangara - --------
Camden 9 23332122
Canberra 10 23332222
Hobart 14 24432232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 23344311
Casey 28 45643232
Mawson 36 46533363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the Australian region during the last 24 hours,
with some active periods in southern Australia and activity reaching
storm levels at times in the Antarctic region. Conditions are
currently returning to quiet levels across Australia but are
likely to become unsettled to active later on 3-Feb due to the
31-Jan CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 4-5
Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly
enhanced over the last 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity
is likely to result in mild MUF depressions on 3-4 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 55700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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