[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 13 issued 2336 UT on 05 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 6 10:36:10 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The only significant flare activity of the period was
a C6 event observed at 0819UT. The origin of this event is newly
numbered active region 1669, now at N08E52. All other active
regions on the visible disc are declining. Mostly Low level solar
activity is expected for the next few days. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
showed a CME first observed at 0824UT, however it is not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed remains near 350km/s.
IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT range. The solar wind
is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 7 23222212
Townsville 7 23212122
Learmonth 6 23112112
Alice Springs 4 22112102
Norfolk Island 5 22211112
Gingin 4 22112111
Camden 3 -2202101
Canberra 2 12201001
Hobart 4 13202001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 02111000
Casey 13 25421112
Mawson 6 23221210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect
mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list