[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 13 issued 2332 UT on 27 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 28 10:32:35 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Mostly Low solar activity is expected for 28 December
with the small chance of moderate levels primarily from solar
regions 1934 and 1936. Recent CME activity does not appear earthward
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds
reached around 340 km/s during 27 December with the IMF remaining
predominantly northward. Mostly light solar wind conditions are
expected for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11100021
Darwin 3 11110022
Townsville 2 11100022
Learmonth 3 21000022
Alice Springs 2 11000021
Culgoora 2 111-0021
Gingin 2 10100021
Camden 2 11100021
Canberra 1 00000021
Launceston 2 11100022
Hobart 2 01100021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 7 22322112
Mawson 4 21111022
Davis 6 22211123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0110 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 5 Quiet
30 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 266 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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