[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 13 issued 2332 UT on 27 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 28 10:32:35 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Mostly Low solar activity is expected for 28 December 
with the small chance of moderate levels primarily from solar 
regions 1934 and 1936. Recent CME activity does not appear earthward 
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds 
reached around 340 km/s during 27 December with the IMF remaining 
predominantly northward. Mostly light solar wind conditions are 
expected for the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100021
      Darwin               3   11110022
      Townsville           2   11100022
      Learmonth            3   21000022
      Alice Springs        2   11000021
      Culgoora             2   111-0021
      Gingin               2   10100021
      Camden               2   11100021
      Canberra             1   00000021
      Launceston           2   11100022
      Hobart               2   01100021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                7   22322112
      Mawson               4   21111022
      Davis                6   22211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0110 1000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     5    Quiet
29 Dec     5    Quiet
30 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 266 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    21300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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