[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 13 issued 2359 UT on 26 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 27 10:59:10 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Mostly Low solar activity is expected for 27 December
with the small chance of moderate levels. Solar wind speeds were
predominantly below 300 km/s during 26 December with the IMF
Bz fluctuating between +5 and -5 nT. A halo CME was observed
in both LASCO and STEREO-B satellite imagery around 03UT on 26
December but does not appear to be associated with any front
side events and is therefore considered to be a backside event
and not geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 21112101
Alice Springs 2 10002101
Culgoora 3 11112111
Gingin 3 20112101
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 0 00101000
Launceston 3 11212101
Hobart 3 11212101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11222100
Casey 11 44321112
Mawson 5 23212101
Davis 4 --222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2013 3210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly Quiet levels are expected for the next
few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 120 Mostly near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 28100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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