[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 13 issued 2344 UT on 28 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 29 10:44:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed for 28 December with
the largest flare being a C9.3 from region 1936. CME activity
was observed around the time of this flare although analysis
of LASCO and STEREO-B imagery suggests the CME was a backside
event. Solar energetic proton fluxes also increased around the
time of this event and have crossed event level thresholds for
the 10 MeV protons. These elevated flux levels are likely to
continue for 24-48 hours. Mostly Low solar activity is expected
for 29 December with the small chance of moderate levels primarily
from solar regions 1934 and 1936. Recent CME activity does not
appear earthward directed and is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-400 km/s during
28 December with the IMF ranging mostly between +5 and -5 nT.
Mostly light solar wind conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 4 11111113
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 4 11111122
Alice Springs 2 10001112
Culgoora 3 11111112
Gingin 2 10101112
Camden 3 01111112
Canberra 0 00000002
Launceston 4 01111113
Hobart 3 01111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00001001
Casey 12 33422123
Mawson 4 21111212
Davis 5 21222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 6 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the
next few days with the chance of unsettled levels for 29 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began approx 28 12 2013 1840UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Dec Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days, with degraded communications over high latitude
regions for the next 24-48 hours due to a PCA event in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days, with degraded communications over high latitude
regions for the next 24-48 hours due to a PCA event in progress.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 36000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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