[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 22 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with two
M-class and several C-class flares. Eight C-class flares were
observed during this period, the largest being a C9 flare from
region 1928(S17W47) at 1036UT. Solar wind speed gradually declined
from 360 to 340 km/s over the UT day today. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-4 nT during this period, staying northwards
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low levels for the next three days with the possibility
of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21210021
Darwin 4 22110122
Townsville 3 21110021
Learmonth 4 21210121
Alice Springs 2 21100021
Culgoora 3 1-21002-
Gingin 2 21110011
Camden 4 22200121
Canberra 1 11100010
Launceston 4 22210121
Hobart 3 22200011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 15 35432121
Mawson 7 33221112
Davis 9 33232121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1201 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 4 Quiet
23 Dec 4 Quiet
24 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed on most locations over the last
24 hours with periods of presence of sporadic E-layers at several
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to
continue for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours with the presence of sporadic E-layers at several
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to
continue for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days with
enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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