[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 10:30:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/-- 19/2319UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
two M-class and several C-class flares. The largest flare of
this period, an M3 event was observed at 2319UT/19 December from
a new region (S15E65). Due to the late time of occurrence this
flare could not be included in yesterday's report. This region
also produced an M1.6 flare at 1157UT/ 20 December. Solar wind
speed was 350-370 km/s during most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this period,
staying south for extended periods during the second half of
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Mostly quiet
to unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 22110111
Darwin 4 22110112
Townsville 3 22000112
Learmonth 4 32010111
Alice Springs 2 22000111
Culgoora 3 22110111
Gingin 4 32100111
Camden 3 22110111
Canberra 2 22000110
Launceston 6 33111211
Hobart 4 23110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12010100
Casey 15 25432222
Mawson 23 45213354
Davis 14 34222342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 4 Quiet
22 Dec 4 Quiet
23 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions may be
expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed on most locations over the last
24 hours with periods of presence of sporadic E-layers at several
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to
continue for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours with the presence of sporadic E-layers at several
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to
continue for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days with
enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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