[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 13 issued 2339 UT on 22 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 23 10:39:01 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0811UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    0838UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    1438UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.3    1512UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.6    2208UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
five low M-class and several C-class flares. AR1928 (S17, W60) 
was the major flare producer and retains the possibility to produce 
M flares. AR1928 is of reasonable size and is in a geoeffective 
position on the disc in the SW quadrant for CMEs over 23-25 Dec. 
The other region producing an M flare was AR1934 (S16, E43) which 
has not yet rotated into a geoeffective position for CMEs. Solar 
wind speed gradually declined from 350 to 300 km/s over the UT 
day today but is due to rise under the effect of a high-speed 
solar-wind stream from an extensive northern coronal hole to 
~~400km/s over 23 Dec, ~500km/s over 24 Dec and peak over 500km/sec 
on 25 Dec. The Bz north-south component of IMF was in the quiescent 
+/-5 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at Low to Moderate levels for the next three days with the possibility 
of M-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120001
      Darwin               2   11120011
      Townsville           2   12120001
      Learmonth            2   11120001
      Alice Springs        2   11120001
      Culgoora             2   21120010
      Gingin               2   11120100
      Camden               2   11120011
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           2   12120001
      Hobart               1   01120000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   44221101
      Mawson               3   12021111
      Davis                7   230-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1020 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     6    Quiet
24 Dec    12    Unsettled
25 Dec    18    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels over the 
last 24 hours despite a moderate shock recorded at the L1 point 
on the ACE spacecraft very early in the UT day. Conditions over 
the next three days will gradually increase in activity to Unsettled 
and possibly Active, with the onset of a high-speed solar-wind 
stream from an extensive coronal hole in the northern solar hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over 
the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layers at several locations, particularly 
partially blanketing the F-layer in the south-west at night. 
Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to continue for 
the Australasian region for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's 
of approx 15%. Geomagnetic activity will gradually increase to 
Active levels over 23-25 Dec due to a high-speed solar-wind stream 
and this will probably cause more variability in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    51200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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