[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 13 issued 2339 UT on 22 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 23 10:39:01 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0811UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 0838UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1438UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.3 1512UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2208UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
five low M-class and several C-class flares. AR1928 (S17, W60)
was the major flare producer and retains the possibility to produce
M flares. AR1928 is of reasonable size and is in a geoeffective
position on the disc in the SW quadrant for CMEs over 23-25 Dec.
The other region producing an M flare was AR1934 (S16, E43) which
has not yet rotated into a geoeffective position for CMEs. Solar
wind speed gradually declined from 350 to 300 km/s over the UT
day today but is due to rise under the effect of a high-speed
solar-wind stream from an extensive northern coronal hole to
~~400km/s over 23 Dec, ~500km/s over 24 Dec and peak over 500km/sec
on 25 Dec. The Bz north-south component of IMF was in the quiescent
+/-5 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay
at Low to Moderate levels for the next three days with the possibility
of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11120001
Darwin 2 11120011
Townsville 2 12120001
Learmonth 2 11120001
Alice Springs 2 11120001
Culgoora 2 21120010
Gingin 2 11120100
Camden 2 11120011
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 2 12120001
Hobart 1 01120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 44221101
Mawson 3 12021111
Davis 7 230-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1020 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 6 Quiet
24 Dec 12 Unsettled
25 Dec 18 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels over the
last 24 hours despite a moderate shock recorded at the L1 point
on the ACE spacecraft very early in the UT day. Conditions over
the next three days will gradually increase in activity to Unsettled
and possibly Active, with the onset of a high-speed solar-wind
stream from an extensive coronal hole in the northern solar hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layers at several locations, particularly
partially blanketing the F-layer in the south-west at night.
Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to continue for
the Australasian region for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's
of approx 15%. Geomagnetic activity will gradually increase to
Active levels over 23-25 Dec due to a high-speed solar-wind stream
and this will probably cause more variability in MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 51200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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