[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 27 09:30:41 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No flare events to report. Four stable regions on the
disc with a new unipolar region at N12 E81 that also appears
stable. No CMEs to report. ACE data show the solar wind speed
below 400 km/s with the north-south IMF component mostly southward
to -4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 2 21110011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 32111112
Learmonth 2 21100111
Alice Springs 5 13111112
Norfolk Island 3 21111111
Culgoora 3 21111111
Gingin 3 21101112
Camden 4 12121111
Canberra 1 01-10100
Hobart 3 11121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11121100
Casey 7 23311112
Mawson 20 43123136
Davis 13 23221135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1323 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 5 Quiet
29 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: An extended period of mild, southward IMF currently underway
may cause some unsettled conditions with greater disturbance at high
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-09 UT. Depressed 25%
22-23 UT. No data at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. A 20% depression
at 17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 20% at Darwin 05 and 21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 15% 05-08 UT at some eastern locations. Depression to
35% at 22 UT and spread F 15-22 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 18500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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