[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 28 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remains at very low levels with
no C-class or greater flare activity. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed over the last 24 hours. A sustained southward excursion
of the IMF Bz component occurred beginning around 07UT and peaking
at around 18UT when the Bz component went to -18nT. The density
and velocity of the solar wind indicate the signature of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. The wind speed has increase to around 450 km/s at time
of writing. Higher wind speeds and possible further Bz southward
periods may be expected over the next 2 days. Flare activity
is expected to remain at very low levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 11112342
Cocos Island 8 11111342
Darwin 9 21212342
Townsville 10 21112343
Learmonth 7 10002342
Alice Springs 9 12112342
Norfolk Island 5 11012232
Culgoora 9 11112343
Gingin 9 12003342
Camden 10 21112343
Canberra 5 12011232
Hobart 9 11012343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 18 01024553
Casey 11 23223233
Mawson 22 43123355
Davis 13 32323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4 11112121
Planetary 5 21112121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 12 Unsettled
29 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet in the first half of
the UT day. In the second half, conditions were Unsettled to
Active due to a sustained period of IMF Bz south in conjugation
with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Conditions
are expected to be Unsettled with a chance of isolated Active
periods for the next 2 days before reverting to mostly Quiet.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed periods may be observed
in southern regions on days 1 and 2.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.8E+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 22300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list