[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 26 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with no C-class or greater 
X-ray flare events in the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions 
are returning to ambient after recent coronal hole and minor 
CME activity. The speed has fallen to under 400 km/s and the 
total field strength of the IMF is around 5nT. Conditions are 
expected to remain ambient for the next 3 days. Solar flare activity 
is expected to be at Low levels for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11131111
      Cocos Island         3   11121101
      Darwin               5   12131112
      Townsville           4   1113111-
      Learmonth            3   00031111
      Alice Springs        5   12131111
      Norfolk Island       3   11131100
      Culgoora             5   11231111
      Gingin               5   01132122
      Camden               5   11231111
      Canberra             3   00131100
      Hobart               4   11231100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    15   01363200
      Casey                9   24132212
      Mawson              18   23323345
      Davis                9   23221233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2222 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug     5    Quiet
27 Aug     5    Quiet
28 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for 24-26 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet 
over the previous 24 hours with an isolated Unsettled period 
for several hours following the detection of a weak (10nT) sudden 
impulse in IPS magnetometer data observed at 1010UT. There were 
no obvious solar wind drivers for this activity. No further CME 
or coronal hole activity is expected over the forecast period 
and conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list