[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 26 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with no C-class or greater
X-ray flare events in the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions
are returning to ambient after recent coronal hole and minor
CME activity. The speed has fallen to under 400 km/s and the
total field strength of the IMF is around 5nT. Conditions are
expected to remain ambient for the next 3 days. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11131111
Cocos Island 3 11121101
Darwin 5 12131112
Townsville 4 1113111-
Learmonth 3 00031111
Alice Springs 5 12131111
Norfolk Island 3 11131100
Culgoora 5 11231111
Gingin 5 01132122
Camden 5 11231111
Canberra 3 00131100
Hobart 4 11231100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 01363200
Casey 9 24132212
Mawson 18 23323345
Davis 9 23221233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 5 Quiet
27 Aug 5 Quiet
28 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 23 August and
is current for 24-26 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet
over the previous 24 hours with an isolated Unsettled period
for several hours following the detection of a weak (10nT) sudden
impulse in IPS magnetometer data observed at 1010UT. There were
no obvious solar wind drivers for this activity. No further CME
or coronal hole activity is expected over the forecast period
and conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 54400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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