[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 13 issued 2341 UT on 24 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 25 09:41:41 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux has declined to nominal
levels, with no significant X-ray activity observed over the
UT day. A disappearing solar filament in the SW quadrant was
reported 00-02UT. A narrow SW directed CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery after 10UT. STEREO A imagery indicates this is directed
mostly S of the Ecliptic. NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery shows a small
W limb eruption at 0840UT as the probable source. A weak shock
was detected in the solar wind at 23/2355UT, which is most likely
the anticipated arrival of the Aug 20 CME. Following this event
solar wind disturbance was minimal. Solar wind speed declined
post-shock from 500 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated +/-3nT and is neutral at the time of report issue.
A minor Forbush Decrease was observed at Mawson Cosray Observatory
at 24/05UT. This can be a precursor to CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Cocos Island 4 21122110
Darwin 6 22222221
Townsville 5 21122122
Learmonth 4 21112220
Alice Springs 5 22122111
Norfolk Island 3 11122010
Culgoora 4 11122111
Gingin 5 21212211
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 3 11122010
Hobart 4 11132110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 11233110
Casey 13 34422231
Mawson 15 43233224
Davis 18 43333225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 4333 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 20 Active
26 Aug 12 Unsettled
27 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 23 August and
is current for 24-26 Aug. Solar wind disturbances from a CME
sequence Aug 20-21 have so far not eventuated. A weak shock,
possibly from the first CME, was observed at 23/2355UT. Geomagnetic
disturbance was minimal. The regional geomagnetic field was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels at low to mid latitudes, with isolated
Active periods at high levels. This present activity results
from moderately elevated solar wind speed under the influence
of a declining coronal hole wind stream. Further geomagnetic
disturbance is anticipated day one with arrival of the second
CME. Minor disturbance is expected to continue into day two due
to a second favourably positioned equatorial coronal hole. Conditions
should decline on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes
may be expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% before local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Spread-F observed 10-17UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Darwin enhanced 20% local day, enhanced 30% local
evening, depressed 20% before local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mildly enhanced to near predicted monthly values
with periods of weak ionisation.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
26 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced ionospheric conditions observed generally over
the Equatorial/Aus regions. Continuing variability at times N
Aus. Extended periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect
mostly normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions
next three days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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