[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 13 issued 2341 UT on 21 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 22 09:41:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: X-ray flare activity was low with a few minor C-class
flares observed over the UT day. Disappearing solar filaments
were reported at 0021 and 0304UT. A weak partial-halo CME was
observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 06UT. STEREO imagery suggests
this CME is directed north of, and in, the ecliptic but generally
eastwards. It appears unlikely to be significantly geoeffective.
Solar wind speed increased steadily over the UT day from 400
to 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component sustained moderate Southward
bias to -10nT from 01 to 04 UT, and maintained mild mostly Southward
bias of about -5nT over the remainder of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 33233233
Cocos Island 11 33-22233
Darwin 18 44233343
Townsville 17 34233343
Learmonth 14 33233333
Alice Springs 12 33223233
Norfolk Island 12 33233232
Culgoora 13 33233233
Gingin 13 33233233
Camden 12 23233233
Canberra 11 23223233
Hobart 14 23334233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 17 13344423
Casey 16 44332233
Mawson 49 37423447
Davis 17 34433323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 41 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: Solar wind Bz component was at times moderately Southwards
over the first half of the UT day, resulting in Unsettled conditions
at low to mid latitudes, with Active intervals at high latitudes.
Increasing solar wind speed combined with mild Southwards Bz
resulted in Unsettled and occasionally Active conditions at all
latitudes during the second half of the UT day. Solar wind speed
remains moderately elevated at the time of report issue. Expect
Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions days one and two.
A mild CME impact is anticipated on day three which, combined
with elevated background solar wind speed, could produce briefly
Active to Minor Storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes
may be expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced to 50% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Briefly enhanced to 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mildly enhanced at times over the UT day but
with extended periods of weak ionosphere.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Normal to mildly enhanced conditions observed S
Aus region. Periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect mostly
normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/Aus regions next three
days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions
days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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