[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 13 issued 2335 UT on 22 Aug 2013

Fri Aug 23 09:35:39 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 132/86

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: A number of minor C-class flares were observed over 
the UT day Aug 22. The most significant was a C4 level event 
from AR 1820 (S12W61) at 0506UT. This was associated with surging 
in other centres to the solar East. LASCO C3 imagery shows a 
SW-directed CME after 0940UT, probably associated with this flare. 
STEREO A imagery shows the CME directed well S of the ecliptic 
so unlikely to be geoeffective. Further analysis of the CME observed 
Aug 21 suggests some Earth impact may be expected on Aug 24. 
Solar wind speed was steady at around 500km/s, increasing to 
~~600 km/s late in the UT day. Increasing solar wind speed, due 
to a favourably positioned coronal hole, was accompanied by IMF 
Bz component trending S of neutral to -5nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23211133
      Cocos Island         6   23211122
      Darwin               9   23212233
      Townsville           9   33211133
      Learmonth            9   23212133
      Alice Springs        7   23202132
      Norfolk Island       6   23111122
      Culgoora             7   23211123
      Gingin              10   23312233
      Camden               8   23211133
      Canberra             5   22201122
      Hobart               9   23212133    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     9   23322222
      Casey               16   34422243
      Mawson              50   65432276
      Davis               41   44432276

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   3423 4344     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
24 Aug    20    Active
25 Aug    20    Active

COMMENT: The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral, limiting 
geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels despite elevated solar 
wind speed due to a favourably positioned coronal hole. After 
18UT, Bz trended Southwards to -5nT, resulting in Active to Minor 
Storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters are 
likely to remain elevated for the next three days due to a second 
coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. Further solar 
wind and geomagnetic disturbance is likely on Aug 23 and Aug 
24 due to anticipated successive minor CME impacts from solar 
eruptions observed on Aug 20 and Aug 21 respectively. Expect 
Active to Minor Storm intervals days one and two and continuing 
Unsettled to Active periods day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes 
may be expected over the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Aug    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions to 15% local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of weak ionosphere over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial 
regions. Normal to mildly enhanced conditions observed all Aus 
regions. Extended periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect 
mostly normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions 
next three days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic 
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    97200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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