[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 21 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with several C1 
level flares from regions 1818(S19W88) and 1817(S04W61). The 
solar wind speed declined from around at 00UT 450 km/s to 400 
km/s at 21UT. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 
2133UT most probably caused by the arrival of the edge of the 
CME observed on the 17th of August. The IMF Bz component swung 
northward after the shock arrival and the total field strength 
(Bt) is less than 10 nT and falling at time of writing. A strong 
full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery around the end 
of the previous UT day (the 19th), however STEREO imagery indicates 
that this is a backside event. An additional CME was observed 
around 0830UT corresponding to an erupting solar filament seen 
in SDO imagery. This is directed mostly to the south, however 
LASCO and STEREO images indicate a reasonable fraction of the 
ejected material is in the ecliptic plane. The expected arrival 
time at Earth from this event is sometime late in the UT day 
on the 23rd, day 3 of this forecast. A coronal hole high speed 
wind stream is expected to become geoeffective sometime in the 
first half of the 21st of August. Solar activity is expected 
to be at mostly low levels over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000002
      Cocos Island         1   10000002
      Darwin               3   12100013
      Townsville           4   22100013
      Learmonth            1   01000002
      Alice Springs        1   01100002
      Norfolk Island       1   10000002
      Culgoora             2   11100002
      Gingin               1   10000002
      Camden               2   11100002
      Canberra             1   0-000002
      Hobart               2   11010002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010001
      Casey                5   33210002
      Mawson              10   31121205
      Davis                7   32231201

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    20    Active
22 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Aug    25    Active

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet condition were observed over the last 24 
hours. Some locations have experience Unsettled conditions in 
the final 2 hours of the UT day due to minor CME effects in the 
solar wind. Unsettled conditions may persist into the first half 
of the UT day on the 21st of August, Active or greater conditions 
are not expected in this time. However, a high speed solar wind 
stream is expected to arrive sometime around the middle of the 
UT day which is expected to cause Unsettled to Active conditions, 
continuing into the 22nd of August. A further CME impact is expected 
midway through the day on the 23rd of August causing Active to 
Minor storm conditions on arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes 
may be expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    72    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the 21st 
of August UT. Some depressed periods may be experienced in southern 
and polar regions late in the UT day and at local dawn on the 
22nd of August. Some mildly depressed periods may be experienced 
in central and southern regions on the 22nd of August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    67300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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