[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 13 issued 2341 UT on 19 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 20 09:41:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with C-class
flares from active regions 1817(S21W83) and 1818(S06W60). Expect
solar activity to remain Low over the UT day, 20 August although
there is a slight chance of an M-class flare from active region
1818. The solar wind slowly decrease from 500km/s to 440km/s
over the last 24 hours. IMF Bz remained stable,fluctuating within
the range +/-3nT. Further analysis of the CME associated with
the M3 flare from active region 1818, reported 17 August, indicates
it does not have significant Earthward directed component, though
a glancing blow is expected to arrive near the end of the UT
day, 20 August or early on the 21 August. Furthermore, a high
speed solar wind stream is expected to be geo-effective early
on 21 August associated with a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11100201
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 4 21200212
Townsville 3 21101112
Learmonth 1 10100200
Alice Springs 2 11100201
Norfolk Island 1 20000101
Culgoora 2 11100201
Gingin 2 10101210
Camden 2 11101201
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 2 11101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 10001100
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 10 22212243
Davis 57 32322129
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2132 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 20 Active
22 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours
though there is a possible increase in activity late in the UT
day, 20 August due to glancing blow of CME (reported 17 August),
if this eventuates expect Unsettled to Active conditions with
Minor Storm possible at higher latitudes. Expect Unsettled to
Active conditions on 21 August due to high speed solar wind conditions
related to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a slight chance of SWFs. Minor degradations possible
day three Antarctic/S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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