[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 13 issued 2352 UT on 11 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 12 09:52:34 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with notable
C-class activity from regions 1817 and 1818. Region 1817 maximum
was a C2.1 flare at 1932UT and region 1818 maximum was a C8.4
flare at 2158UT. Both regions have grown in sunspot size over
the last 24 hours. Activity is expected to be Low for the next
3 days with further C-class flares and the chance of M-class
events. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 450km/s at 00UT
to be ~360km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase from the 14Aug
as a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole
moves into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 4 22111102
Learmonth 2 21110101
Alice Springs 2 11110101
Norfolk Island 1 11010010
Culgoora 2 11110101
Gingin 2 11110101
Camden 2 11110101
Canberra 1 11010101
Hobart 2 11120100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01020000
Casey 6 33210111
Mawson 9 12223114
Davis 5 12322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Possible Unsettled
to Active periods for 14Aug due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed for mid and low latitudes.
Normal HF conditions for high latitudes with occasional disturbed
periods. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values for
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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