[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 13 09:30:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 1042UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: A M1.5 level flare was observed in Active Region 1817
(S23E07) at 10411UT. This region evolved quickly in the past
24 hours and may produce further M-class events over the forecast
period. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO ~1212UT. It
doesn't appear to have an Earth-directed component. Solar wind
speed declined very slightly from 400 to 350 km/s over the UT
day. The IMF Bz component maintained mild Southward bias to -5nT
after 1500UT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Cocos Island 3 111-----
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 3 21110112
Alice Springs 2 011-----
Norfolk Island 1 00000012
Culgoora 2 11010112
Gingin 1 100-----
Camden 3 11110112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 11010012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 000-----
Casey 5 221-----
Mawson 3 210-----
Davis 7 11221024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2112 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
15 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during August 12 and
is expected to remain mostly Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next 3
days with a chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days, with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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