[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 13 issued 2336 UT on 10 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 11 09:36:55 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed over the
last 24 hours. None of the current regions on the visible disk
show significant magnetic complexity, activity is expected to
remain Very Low for the next few days with a chance of possible
C-class flares. SOHO/STEREO images show a CME (~1015 UT) which
is probably associated with a long duration B4 flare around 0920UT
from region 1810. This appears Earth-directed, with an approximate
arrival time 14 August. Solar wind speed ranged between 500km/s
to 400km/s over the UT day, while Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT.
Possible glancing blow CME is anticipated to arrive within the
next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11221001
Cocos Island 2 11122000
Darwin 5 22222012
Townsville 4 11222011
Learmonth 4 22222000
Alice Springs 4 12222001
Norfolk Island 3 11121011
Culgoora 2 11121001
Gingin 3 21221000
Camden 4 12231001
Canberra 2 01121000
Hobart 3 11131000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00132000
Casey 8 33322200
Mawson 10 43322111
Davis 7 23322101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 1322 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 16 Active
12 Aug 12 Unsettled
13 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 10 August and
is current for 10-11 Aug. Quiet conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. A possible glancing blow CME is anticipated to
arrive within the next 24 hours resulting in Active to isolated
Minor Storm conditions. Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions
likely to persist into day two of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's possible for mid latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes should geomagnetic activity increase
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 50 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 50 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 22 was issued
on 10 August and is current for 10-11 Aug. Regional MUF's mostly
near predicted monthly values with variable conditions observed
generally Equatorial/N Aus regions. Increased geomagnetic activity
anticipated over the next 24 hours with possible MUF depressions
of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 83700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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