[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 13 issued 2350 UT on 09 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 10 09:50:04 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Low solar activity over the last 24 hours with a single
C2.0 class event at 2028UT. Region 1813 magnetic complexity also
increased over the UT day. Solar wind speed was 360km/s at 00UT
and has gradually increased to be ~490km/s at the time of this
report. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT from 00UT to 09UT after
which it swung to be predominantly northward, ranging between
-3nT and 10nT. Two possible glancing blow CME's are anticipated
to arrive within the next 24-48 hours. Very Low to Low solar
activity is expected for the next few days with a chance of possible
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12221021
Cocos Island 4 12221021
Darwin 5 12221122
Townsville 6 12231122
Learmonth 6 12231122
Alice Springs 4 12221021
Norfolk Island 4 12121022
Culgoora 3 02121021
Gingin 4 12221021
Camden 4 12221011
Canberra 3 02221011
Hobart 4 12221021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01021010
Casey 7 22222132
Mawson 18 33233154
Davis 12 23322134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 16 Active
11 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. A
possible glancing blow CME arrival is anticipated to arrive within
the next 24 hours resulting in Active to isolated Minor Storm
conditions. Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 11Aug
with a second CME arrival also expected and Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 12Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for mid to high
latitudes and variable conditions for low latitudes. Depressed
MUF's possible for mid latitudes and disturbed conditions for
high latitudes should geomagnetic activity increase over the
next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions
for Northern AUS regions during local night, variable conditions
for IPS low latitude stations. Increased geomagnetic activity
anticipated on the 10Aug with possible enhancements for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS regions during local day followed
by MUF's depressions of ~20% during local night. Variable conditions
for Equatorial regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Depressed MUF's 10-20% expected for 11Aug-12Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 81100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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