[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 29 09:30:22 EST 2013 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Several C-class flares from regions 1731(N09E37) and 
1733(S17W42) on April 28. The largest event of the period was 
a C4.4 flare from region 1733 at 2017U and was associated with 
a type II sweep estimated at approximately 570 km/s. No associated 
CME was evident based on the available LASCO images. Region 1733 
appeared stable while region 1731 showed further growth. C-class 
flares are expected with a chance for M-class flares over the 
forecast period. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-4nT over 
the UT day with one sustained negative period (-5nT) from 0900-1300UT. 
Expect relatively stable IMF conditions on a declining solar 
wind next three days.

Region 1718 (N20) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 29 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet with one 
isolated Unsettled period.

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11113122
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            7   21223222
      Alice Springs        5   11113122
      Culgoora             3   00112121
      Gingin               7   11113232
      Camden               3   11012121
      Canberra             2   00012121
      Hobart               5   10123122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     6   00034200
      Casey                9   32322132
      Mawson              14   31122335
      Davis                8   22232---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2311 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr     7    Quiet
01 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were Quiet with one 
isolated Unsettled period ~1200UT in response to a sustained 
period of moderately southwards-directed IMF. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be predominantly Quiet for the next few days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during 
UT day, 28 April, however moderate depressions were noted at 
Niue Island station during the local night time hours. Expect 
mostly normal ionospheric conditions for next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    77700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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