[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 28 09:30:17 EST 2013 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 27 April. Region 
1731(N09E41), remains the most complex region on the visible 
disc(beta-gamma mag class). There has been some increase in the 
area of this region but remained relatively quiet during the 
last 24 hours. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected 
with a chance for M-class flares over the forecast period. Solar 
wind speeds declined during 27 April and are presently around 
400km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-2nT over the UT day. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline during 
the next 24 hours. Region 1718 (N20) which previously produced 
M-flare(s) is due to return around 29 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112211
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Alice Springs        5   22112211
      Culgoora             3   12111111
      Gingin               5   21212221
      Camden               3   22111101
      Canberra             2   12101100
      Hobart               5   22112211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   22001100
      Casey               10   33311322
      Mawson              21   44422335
      Davis               20   3332354-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21   3533 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     7    Quiet
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: The Australian regional Dst index has recovered from 
the geomagnetic storm conditions of 26 April. Geomagnetic conditions 
were Quiet during the UT day, 27 April and are expected to remain 
mostly Quiet during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day, 27 
April. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected to prevail 
over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with several 
active regions on the Sun and quiet Geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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