[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 27 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 113/64 119/71 122/75
COMMENT: Region 1726(now behind the solar west limb) produced
most of the x-ray flare activity for the UT day, including a
C7 flare at 0627UT. New active region 1731(N07E61) has developed
a beta-gamma configuration, it is the most significant feature
on the solar disc. There are 4 other active regions on the disc,
although each less than 60 millionths of disc, so only AR1731
holds much flare potential over the next few days. Solar wind
speed remains elevated (~550 km/s)under the influence of a coronal
hole. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day
with one sustained negative period (-5nT) from 0200-0400UT. Expect
relatively stable IMF conditions on a declining solar wind next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Mostly Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Darwin 15 3333333-
Townsville 12 2333332-
Learmonth 16 3334333-
Alice Springs 12 2333332-
Culgoora 12 23333322
Gingin 14 2324333-
Camden 12 23333322
Canberra 12 2333332-
Hobart 13 23343322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 2445542-
Casey 14 3433232-
Mawson 48 5743336-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 8 3212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 12 Unsettled
28 Apr 7 Quiet
29 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 April and
is current for 26-27 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Unsettled with some Active periods,26 April. Active to Storm
periods were observed in Antarctica. Expect mostly Unsettled
conditions 27 April with isolated cases of Active-Minor Storm
levels at high latitudes, with a return to mostly Quiet conditions
days 2 and 3 (28-29 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 26 April. Expect mostly
normal ionospheric conditions for next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list