[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 26 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Region 1726 (N13W63) produced several C class flares,
the larger being a C5.6 event at 1728UT. This region has continued
to grow, but will rotate off the visible solar disk in the next
24 hours. Major C-flares are expected form this region with a
chance for M-class flares over the next 24 hours. Solar wind
speed increased from 450 to ~ 600 km/s following an IMF phi component
phase change during the later part of the UT day and is expected
to return to light to moderate levels today, 26 April. The IMF
Bz remained mostly within +/-5nT, and is expected to remain relatively
stable for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22122222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 9 32122332
Alice Springs 6 22122222
Culgoora 6 22122221
Gingin 8 22122331
Camden 7 22132221
Canberra 6 11132221
Hobart 9 22232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 11143320
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 22 33323264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 24 4324 5353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr 7 Quiet
28 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet with some isolated Unsettled
periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for the next few days with the chance of Unsettled periods
day 1 (26 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected over the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were slightly depressed
during the night hours of 25 April at some Australian stations.
Mostly normal ionospheric conditions for next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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