[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 25 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a series of low level 
C class flares from region 1726(N13W49). Background solar X-ray 
flux remains at low levels. Solar activity is expected to be 
low over the next 3 days with a chance of moderate activity particularly 
from AR1726. Solar wind speed increased steadily over the second 
half of the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole, reaching 
480km/s at its peak. The IMF Bz remained mostly within +/-10nT 
with the exception of a two hours interval of sustained, moderately 
southwards orientation (Bz=-18nT) from ~0930-1130UT.The IMF Bz 
component may continue to have southward excursions of significance 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32243232
      Darwin              12   32333232
      Townsville          14   33333332
      Learmonth           14   32343233
      Alice Springs       11   32233232
      Culgoora            11   32233232
      Gingin              16   32243343
      Camden              13   33243232
      Canberra            12   32243232
      Hobart              15   32244332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    27   23265442
      Casey               14   32333243
      Mawson              46   56434366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0111 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    12    Unsettled
26 Apr    12    Unsettled
27 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a coronal 
hole wind stream. Geomagnetic conditions increased to Unsettled 
and Active 09-12UT in response to a sustained period of moderately 
southwards-directed IMF. Storm periods were observed at high 
latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated Active 
periods, days 1 and 2 (25-26 April), with a return to mostly 
Quiet conditions day 3 (27 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected over the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions have returned to near normal 
at most locations. Possible minor depressions at high latitudes 
for today, 25 April, otherwise mostly normal ionospheric conditions 
for next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    18100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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