[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 24 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Several C-class flares from regions 1726(N13W49) and
1723(S19W35) on April 23. Region 1723 is declining while Region
1726 showed renewed growth. Major C-flares are expected form
this region with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare over the forecast period. Two CMEs were
first observed in LASCO and STEREO images at ~0554 and 1900 UT,
neither are expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show the north-south
IMF became increasingly disturbed to +/-10 nT from ~19 UT; other
solar wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period
with wind speed below 350 km/s. A recurrent coronal hole in the
southern hemisphere will increase the solar wind speed from late
April 24 onwards. Solar wind speeds were enhanced (reaching 550km/s)
during the previous solar rotation from the influence of this
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12212222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 8 23222222
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Culgoora 5 12111222
Gingin 6 12212222
Camden 4 02112211
Canberra 3 01111211
Hobart 5 11112222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 02211012
Mawson 7 21111124
Davis 6 22222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 12 Unsettled
25 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained Quiet during the UT
day, 23 April. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become
Unsettled to Active from late on day 1 (24 April) into day 2(25
April) due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. Minor Storm
levels are possible at high latitudes. The Ap index was enhanced
during the same phase of previous solar rotation cycles.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
25 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
26 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The propagation conditions were slightly depressed during
the night hours of 23 April at most Australian stations. Expect
moderate depressions over the forecast period due to a geomagnetic
activity induced by a high speed solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 266 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 13900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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