[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 30 09:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Several C-class flares from regions 1730,1731,1732 and 
1733 with the largest a C5.9 from 1730 but the other regions 
being more prolific with number of C flares. Numerous type III 
radio bursts were observed in association with the x-ray flares. 
AR1731 is the largest at over 400 millionths of the disc and 
is currently stable in size. Solar wind speed declined from 420km/s 
to 360km/s although density increased which would have somewhat 
offset a decline in solar wind pressure on the geomagnetic field. 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field north-south magnetic polarity was 
oscillating in the neutral +/- 5nT area with no large merging 
events with the geomagnetic field.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112111
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            5   22112112
      Alice Springs        3   21112001
      Culgoora             3   21102002
      Gingin               4   21112111
      Camden               2   21002001
      Canberra             2   20002001
      Hobart               4   21112111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11002000
      Casey                7   33212111
      Mawson              24   62111155
      Davis               11   42222124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1002 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr     7    Quiet
01 May     7    Quiet
02 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet 
as solar wind speed declined to a low ~360km/s although density 
increased to somewhat offset the solar wind pressure on the geomagnetic 
field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly Quiet 
for the next three days in the absence of prolonged southward 
IMF Bz or CMEs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during 
UT day, 28 April across mid-latitudes. Enhancements at near-equatorial 
Niue Island station were possibly caused by remnant activity 
in the equatorial anomaly/fountain after the geomagnetic disturbances 
of the previous days. Expect mostly normal HF frequency availability 
for next three days in the absence of significant geomagnetic 
or solar flare activity. There is a chance of isolated M/X flares 
from four of the solar active regions, which if they occur during 
local daytime will cause short wave fadeouts of varying degree.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    62800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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