[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 14 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 1718 (N21W58), 1719 (N09W14) and 
newly numbered 1724. Low activity is expected for the next 3 
days, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed remained 
around 400 km/s over most of the UT day. A sudden shock in the 
wind speed around 13/2215 at ACE coincides with the expected 
arrival time of the CME observed 11-Apr. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral for the last 24 hours. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 13/0235UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
13/0235UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111113
      Darwin               4   2211111-
      Townsville           3   2211110-
      Learmonth            8   33222221
      Norfolk Island       5   22111113
      Culgoora             4   12111003
      Camden               4   22110003
      Canberra             2   11010002
      Hobart               6   22121113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Mawson               8   3411211-
      Davis                9   232-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2210 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    40    Minor to Major Storm
15 Apr     7    Quiet
16 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for 13-14 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over 
the last 24 hours. Arrival of the CME observed 11-Apr is expected 
to result in conditions reaching storm levels especially at higher 
latitudes on 14-Apr. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 
15-16 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-poor      Fair-poor
15 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
15 Apr    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 7 was issued 
on 12 April and is current for 13-14 Apr. HF conditions were 
mostly normal today with minor to moderate MUF enhancements. 
Similar conditions are expected early on 14-Apr, with minor to 
significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
later on 14-Apr and into 15-Apr, especially in mid and Southern 
Aus/NZ regions, due to increased geomagnetic activity levels 
expected during this period. Conditions should return to mostly 
normal on 16-Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    71700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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