[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 14 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 1718 (N21W58), 1719 (N09W14) and
newly numbered 1724. Low activity is expected for the next 3
days, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed remained
around 400 km/s over most of the UT day. A sudden shock in the
wind speed around 13/2215 at ACE coincides with the expected
arrival time of the CME observed 11-Apr. The IMF Bz component
was mostly neutral for the last 24 hours. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 13/0235UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
13/0235UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22111113
Darwin 4 2211111-
Townsville 3 2211110-
Learmonth 8 33222221
Norfolk Island 5 22111113
Culgoora 4 12111003
Camden 4 22110003
Canberra 2 11010002
Hobart 6 22121113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Mawson 8 3411211-
Davis 9 232-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 40 Minor to Major Storm
15 Apr 7 Quiet
16 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 13-14 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over
the last 24 hours. Arrival of the CME observed 11-Apr is expected
to result in conditions reaching storm levels especially at higher
latitudes on 14-Apr. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for
15-16 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Fair-normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
15 Apr Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
15 Apr 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 7 was issued
on 12 April and is current for 13-14 Apr. HF conditions were
mostly normal today with minor to moderate MUF enhancements.
Similar conditions are expected early on 14-Apr, with minor to
significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
later on 14-Apr and into 15-Apr, especially in mid and Southern
Aus/NZ regions, due to increased geomagnetic activity levels
expected during this period. Conditions should return to mostly
normal on 16-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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