[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 13 issued 2335 UT on 12 Apr 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 13 09:35:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 2038UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed over the last 24
hours. Active regions 1718 (N19W38) and 1719 (N10W01) produced
two C flares each. The largest event was an M3 flare from region
1718 at 12/2038 UT. Further M-class events are likely over the
next 3 days. There is a small chance of an X-class event. The
solar wind speed remained in the 400-500 km/s range, declining
slightly. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT, with
a positive bias. Solar wind speed is expected to increase late
on 13-Apr, due to the arrival of the CME observed on 11-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 7 322212--
Townsville 5 222121--
Learmonth 7 322122--
Alice Springs 5 222111--
Norfolk Island 4 22111111
Culgoora 4 22211111
Gingin 5 222111--
Camden 3 12211001
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 120100--
Casey 13 443111--
Mawson 11 433210--
Davis 10 33332212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0011 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 20 Quiet to Major Storm
14 Apr 40 Major Storm to Unsettled
15 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 13-14 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over
the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Unsettled to minor
storm periods were observed in the first half of the UT day in
Antarctica. Quiet conditions are expected for most of 13-Apr.
Arrival of the CME observed 11-Apr is expected to result in conditions
reaching major storm levels late on 13-Apr and continuing into
14-Apr, subsequently declining to unsettled levels. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for 15-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
15 Apr Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to
moderate MUF enhancements. Minor to significant MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected on 14-15 Apr,
especially on mid and high latitudes, due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Chance of
sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight
sectors.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 7 was issued
on 12 April and is current for 13-14 Apr. HF conditions were
mostly normal today with minor to moderate MUF enhancements.
Similar conditions are expected for 13-Apr. Minor to significant
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected
on 14-15 Apr, especially in mid and Southern Aus/NZ regions,
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs)
on circuits with daylight sectors.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 99900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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