[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 13 issued 2342 UT on 11 Apr 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 12 09:42:48 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.5 0716UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been high today. Five C-class and
one M6.5(0716UT) flares were observed. The M6.5 flare from region
1719(N10W12) was associated with Type II and Type IV radio bursts
and a full halo earthward directed CME with an estimated arrival
late on 13 April. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 380
to 500 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +/- 5nT during this period, staying positive for
relatively longer periods of time. Low level of solar activity
with some possibility of isolated M-class flare may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Culgoora 3 11111112
Gingin 6 22211222
Camden 3 01111112
Canberra 2 01100102
Hobart 3 11111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01020101
Casey 10 33421112
Mawson 10 21212215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 4 Quiet
13 Apr 20 Quiet to major storm
14 Apr 40 Major storm then down to unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for 12 April and the first
half of 13 April. Geomagnetic activity may rise upto major storm
levels late on 13 April due the expected arrival of a CME around
this time. On 14 April the activity is expected to decline from
major storm to unsettled levels as the effect of the CME gradually
diminishes on the day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
14 Apr Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor
to moderate MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for 12 April and most parts of 13 April. Minor
to significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions are expected from late on 13 April and throughout
the day on 14 April, especially on mid and high latitudes,
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
14 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to
moderate MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for 12 April and most parts of 13 April. Minor to
significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are expected from late on 13 April and throughout the day on
14 April, especially in mid and Southern Aus/NZ regions, due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs)
on circuits with daylight sectors.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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